As delivery of H1N1 vaccine to the provinces ramps up this week after an unlucky slowdown, some public health officials are cautioning that Canadians shouldn’t decide they can do without vaccine because they have made it this far without it. Though a wave of infection seems to be peaking in some parts of the country and is maybe past its peak in others, the virus should not be discounted.
In parts of the southern US where influenza activity began to decline there are signs another upsurge in infections is coming, flu epidemiologist Lone Simonsen declared Sunday. Simonsen, who is an analyst at George Washington University in Washington, D.C, has done an in depth study of the wave patterns of previous pandemics.
Simonsen, who is an analyst at George Washington University in Washington, D.C, has done an in depth study of the wave patterns of previous pandemics. “In ’57 we definitely had a fall wave followed immediately by a winter wave. And then we had the same pattern in’18,” she asserts, adding that in the pandemic of’89, the majority of the deaths happened in the 3rd wave.”It wouldn’t be surprising to any one if there had been another wave here this winter.”
A Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll released last week advised fifty five percent of Canadians meant to be immunized against the H1N1 virus. Critics of the way that the vaccine program has been handled have asserted the vaccine is coming too late. This perspective isn’t shared by Dr Alain Poirier, Quebec’s chief public health officer. “People say the vaccinations are being done too late,” Poirier recounted late last week. “Often there is a 3rd wave and we might have that in February or March – we do not know.”
But Simonsen asserts history shows pandemic viruses break the guidelines as they’re getting familiar with their new hosts, humans.
Another advantage of vaccination now may be the fact it can take many years for pandemic viruses to settle down to the point at which they act like seasonal viruses, meaning they stop taking such a heavy toll on younger people and move their focus to their normal target, the old, Simonsen says. “For’18, as an example, it took a good three-four-five years before it got back to business as usual,” she explains. “It takes a small while before it settles in.”
Another advantage of vaccination now may be the fact it can take many years for pandemic viruses to settle down to the point at which they act like seasonal viruses, meaning they stop taking such a heavy toll on younger people and move their focus to their conventional target, the older folks, Simonsen says. “For’18, for instance, it took a good three-four-five years before it became back to business as usual,” she explains. “It takes a little while before it settles. Because the virus still has lots of people it can infect, it isn’t under pressure to mutate.
After the pandemics of’57 and’68, it took many years before the viruses mutated to the point the vaccine needed to be updated. But Schabas, chief medical officer of health for Hastings and Prince Edward Counties in eastern Ontario, had adamantly contended the H1N1 outbreak isn’t a major public health event. Schabas said to the media last week that once the “dust has settled on H1N1″ between 200 and 300 people will have died in Canada – far less than people who die of seasonal influenza each year.
Braniff Watson has written many articles on the topic of theswine flu virus . To obtain more knowledge on theswine flu virus , visit the H1N1 website .
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